Inflation—Not Back to Target, Not Enough to Derail a December Rate Cut The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in October, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% last month. The CPI is up 2.6%...
A Drama-Free Fed Meeting, Press Conference* and the Election More about the asterisk in a moment, but first, let’s touch on the meat and potatoes of last week’s Federal Reserve meeting. It came as no surprise that the Fed reduced its key rate, the fed funds rate, by...
A Robust GDP and Muddy Jobs Report The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual pace of 2.8% in Q3, which was down from 3.0% in Q2. The broadest measure of U.S. economic activity matched the final...
The Interest Rate Paradox Last month, the Federal Reserve reduced its key interest rate, and the consensus suggested (and still suggests) that the Fed will cut rates two more times before the year ends. A closely watched tool from the CME Group is pricing in a...
Happy Birthday The bull market turned two years old last week. Since bottoming, the S&P 500 Index has climbed almost 64% (through 10/17/24). The index is up 22% from its early 2022 peak, according to data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve. Following the 2022...
The Ebb and Flow of Inflation Let’s go granular and jump right into the numbers. Aided by a 1.9% decline in energy prices, the Consumer Price Index released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) rose 0.2% in September. The annual rate slowed from 2.5% in August...
