The US Economy’s Best Showing in Two Years There has been no shortage of stories about the uncertainty that permeates the US economy. Consumers tell surveyors that they are worried about the future. In addition, there are occasional examples of companies citing...

An Uptick in the Unemployment Rate The unemployment rate rose from 4.4% in September to 4.6% in November—see Figure 1. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics did not conduct its household survey in October due to the government shutdown. The household survey includes the...

Fed Cuts Rates Again, Signals a Possible Pause The Federal Reserve followed through on what was a widely expected rate cut, reducing the fed funds rate a quarter-percentage point (1 basis point = 0.01%) to a range of 3.50 – 3.75%. This is the third rate cut—totaling...

Black Friday’s Spending Spree A December 1 headline from Reuters sums up the start of the Christmas shopping season: US Holiday Shoppers Shake Off Economic Blues for Online Spending Spree. Let’s briefly review the numbers. Deep discounts have spurred shoppers to...

Data Disconnect Retailers are ringing up solid earnings, but consumer confidence surveys tell a different story, suggesting the mood is far from upbeat. This disconnect raises a big question: if shoppers are still buying, as we will highlight in a moment, why do they...

Buyer’s Market—With Strings Attached Redfin reported last week that sellers are grappling with the strongest buyer’s market since the real estate brokerage firm began compiling records back in 2013. Sellers now outnumber buyers by 37%. More sellers than buyers give...