It’s Hard to Say Good-bye: What Persistently Low Layoffs Say About the Economy Much has been made of the sluggish hiring environment, but less attention has been paid to an important counterpoint: the persistently low level of layoffs. Figure 1 highlights the number...

Forks, Knives, and Economic Clues Let’s review one narrow economic indicator that provides a useful, though not standalone, measure of the overall economy’s health. The US Census categorizes it as ‘food services and drinking places.’ That can best be described as...

Soft December Hiring Underscores Tepid Year On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, underscoring a year of persistently sluggish job growth. The unemployment rate offered a glimmer of optimism,...

A Stock Market Three-Peat The bull market that began in late 2022 continued through last year. The S&P 500 Index, which posted gains that topped 20% in both 2023 and 2024, recorded an advance of 16.39% last year. But the year wasn’t free of volatility. The bulls...

The US Economy’s Best Showing in Two Years There has been no shortage of stories about the uncertainty that permeates the US economy. Consumers tell surveyors that they are worried about the future. In addition, there are occasional examples of companies citing...

An Uptick in the Unemployment Rate The unemployment rate rose from 4.4% in September to 4.6% in November—see Figure 1. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics did not conduct its household survey in October due to the government shutdown. The household survey includes the...