Government Shutdowns: Why Investors Rarely Care Historically, US government shutdowns have had minimal impact on the stock market. Let’s review the graphic below. Since 1976, government shutdowns of varying lengths have had little effect on stocks, as measured by the...

Reductions in Interest Rates and Market Response—Historical Review A couple of weeks ago, the Federal Reserve cut its key rate, the fed funds rate, by a quarter-percentage point to 4.00-4.25%. It’s the first rate cut since last December. So, is this one and done, or...

The Fed Delivers a Long-Awaited Rate Cut To virtually no one’s surprise, the Federal Reserve slashed the target on its key interest rate—the fed funds rate—at the conclusion of its meeting on Wednesday. The only question regarding the decision was whether the Fed...

Latest CPI Tees Up Fed Rate Cut The only thing that might have been standing in the way between the Federal Reserve and a rate cut this week was last Thursday’s release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). While the inflation figures weren’t particularly soft, August’s...

No Hire, No Fire Economy For starters, the title is a simplified five-word summary of the labor market. Recall that last week, we explored the low level of layoffs. This week, we shift the focus to hiring trends. But first, let’s take a closer look at the numbers from...

Initial Claims and Economic Signals: What Investors Watch Initial claims for unemployment insurance measure the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. The data is released weekly, making it one of the most up-to-date indicators of labor...