A Robust GDP and Muddy Jobs Report The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual pace of 2.8% in Q3, which was down from 3.0% in Q2. The broadest measure…
The Interest Rate Paradox Last month, the Federal Reserve reduced its key interest rate, and the consensus suggested (and still suggests) that the Fed will cut rates two more times before the year ends. A closely watched tool from the…
Happy Birthday The bull market turned two years old last week. Since bottoming, the S&P 500 Index has climbed almost 64% (through 10/17/24). The index is up 22% from its early 2022 peak, according to data from the St. Louis…
The Ebb and Flow of Inflation Let’s go granular and jump right into the numbers. Aided by a 1.9% decline in energy prices, the Consumer Price Index released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) rose 0.2% in September.…
Investors Cheer the Fed’s Rate Cut The Federal Reserve implemented a significant policy shift last month with a larger-than-expected 50 basis point (bp, 1 bp = 0.01%) rate cut to 4.75 – 5.00%. This is the first time the Fed…
A Fed Rate Cut and Your Mortgage Rate A recent online advertisement from a major bank read, “The Fed just lowered interest rates. Could refinancing save you money?” There is an implicit assumption in the ad that the Fed’s half-percentage…
Boom—Fed Opts for 50 On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced a 50-basis point (bp, 1 bp = 0.01%) rate cut for the fed funds rate to 4.75 – 5.00%, its first reduction since 2020. The announcement marks the end of…
A Green Light for the Fed—in Three Graphs All indications point to a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week. What’s behind the Fed’s rationale? Let’s look at three key metrics. Aided by lower gasoline prices and stable prices…
Then and Now Overbuilding, speculation, and easy access to credit encouraged a housing boom and a bust in the 2000s. Sales cratered later in the decade, and along with it, prices tumbled. Today, housing sales have plummeted once again. According…
Powell’s Victory Lap Speech (sort of) Fed Chief Powell’s much-anticipated speech against the picturesque backdrop of the Grand Tetons in Jackson Hole, WY, virtually assures that the Fed will reduce interest rates next month. In a short 16-minute speech, Powell…
