Job Growth and Economic Growth On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by 227,000 in November, which came in just above the consensus forecast of 214,000 (CNBC). The unemployment rate, measured by a…
Another Strong Earnings Season Our discussions have included Fed policy, the economy, and the surge in inflation since the pandemic. Why? In large part, they are all a part of the stock market pricing equation. Yet, so are corporate profits,…
Does a Republican Sweep Matter for Investors? Tables and graphics such as the one below typically surface every four years. While they are interesting, they do not provide much insight, except for the idea that stocks tend to perform well…
Inflation—Not Back to Target, Not Enough to Derail a December Rate Cut The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in October, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% last…
A Drama-Free Fed Meeting, Press Conference* and the Election More about the asterisk in a moment, but first, let’s touch on the meat and potatoes of last week’s Federal Reserve meeting. It came as no surprise that the Fed reduced…
A Robust GDP and Muddy Jobs Report The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual pace of 2.8% in Q3, which was down from 3.0% in Q2. The broadest measure…
The Interest Rate Paradox Last month, the Federal Reserve reduced its key interest rate, and the consensus suggested (and still suggests) that the Fed will cut rates two more times before the year ends. A closely watched tool from the…
Happy Birthday The bull market turned two years old last week. Since bottoming, the S&P 500 Index has climbed almost 64% (through 10/17/24). The index is up 22% from its early 2022 peak, according to data from the St. Louis…
The Ebb and Flow of Inflation Let’s go granular and jump right into the numbers. Aided by a 1.9% decline in energy prices, the Consumer Price Index released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) rose 0.2% in September.…
Investors Cheer the Fed’s Rate Cut The Federal Reserve implemented a significant policy shift last month with a larger-than-expected 50 basis point (bp, 1 bp = 0.01%) rate cut to 4.75 – 5.00%. This is the first time the Fed…
