Economic Anxieties Subside Markets settled down in Japan, and the latest economic reports in the U.S. aren’t signaling that the economy is headed for an imminent recession. These factors sparked a strong rally in U.S. stocks last week. Led by…
A Rollercoaster and the Carry Trade Ask the average investor what inflation or unemployment is, and they can probably give you a good working definition. Ask them about the ‘carry trade,’ and you’ll likely get a blank stare. Even the…
A September Rate Cut is on the Table, Softer Economic Data Raises Worries As expected, the Federal Reserve kept its key rate, the fed funds rate, unchanged at 5.25 – 5.50%. After holding the fed funds rate steady for a…
Brisk Pace for GDP The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the largest measure of goods and services, expanded at a brisk annualized pace of 2.8% in the second quarter. That’s up from 1.4%…
Two Graphs and a Data Table… …And they all come to the same conclusion. What’s going on? The labor market is moving back into balance. No longer do we come across articles touting the Great Resignation. In 2021 and 2022,…
Another Soft Inflation Number Bolsters the Case for Lower Rates In 2021 and 2022, soaring inflation sparked the most aggressive series of rate hikes in decades. While prices remain high, the rate of those price increases has slowed, and the…
At First Glance, Another Solid Jobs Report The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that nonfarm payrolls rose a solid 206,000 in June, topping the consensus forecast offered by Bloomberg News of 190,000. However, first glances may not always…
An AI Bonanza Rally mode—that’s been the theme for the major market indexes since the market bottomed out in late 2022. But it comes with a caveat, as we’ll discuss in a moment. Advancing 14.48% in 2024, including nearly 4%…
Mixed Signals Much has been made of the remarkable resilience of the American economy. Forecasters who confidently called for a recession in 2023 got it wrong. So far this year, the economy is generating new jobs, and the U.S. economy…
A Steady-as-She-Goes Fed and a Tame Inflation Report As expected, the Federal Reserve announced last Wednesday that it held its key rate, the fed funds rate, unchanged at 5.25 – 5.50%. The Fed left the door open to a cut…
