Fed Cuts Rates Again, Signals a Possible Pause The Federal Reserve followed through on what was a widely expected rate cut, reducing the fed funds rate a quarter-percentage point (1 basis point = 0.01%) to a range of 3.50 – 3.75%. This is the third rate cut—totaling...

Black Friday’s Spending Spree A December 1 headline from Reuters sums up the start of the Christmas shopping season: US Holiday Shoppers Shake Off Economic Blues for Online Spending Spree. Let’s briefly review the numbers. Deep discounts have spurred shoppers to...

Data Disconnect Retailers are ringing up solid earnings, but consumer confidence surveys tell a different story, suggesting the mood is far from upbeat. This disconnect raises a big question: if shoppers are still buying, as we will highlight in a moment, why do they...

Buyer’s Market—With Strings Attached Redfin reported last week that sellers are grappling with the strongest buyer’s market since the real estate brokerage firm began compiling records back in 2013. Sellers now outnumber buyers by 37%. More sellers than buyers give...

Investors Unfazed by Shutdown The government shutdown lasted from October 1 to November 12. It was the longest on record. During that period, the S&P 500 rose from 6,688.46 (September 30) to 6,850.92 (November 12), or an advance of 2.4%. As we’ve noted in prior...

The Job Market’s Missing Pulse The government shutdown has been and will always be prominently featured in the 24-hour news cycle. Travelers are feeling it, furloughed federal employees wonder when they will receive their next paycheck, and even the housing market is...